The NCAA transfer portal opened for men’s basketball players on Monday, and with it followed an unprecedented wave of names officially entering. Over 700 names were entered Monday, and plenty more flooded in on Tuesday, with over 1,000 players officially in the portal just two days into the 30-day window. That’s a far faster start to portal proceedings than we’ve seen in previous years, though some of that is tied to the later date to open the portal this year, which provided more time for players to do end-of-season meetings and make plans for their next move. It’s certainly possible we’ll see this be the most active transfer portal ever, but I expect the total number of players entering to not be far off last season’s approximately 2,000 despite the fast start.
Key Early Portal Storylines Prices For Top Players Have Exploded
With the caveat that asking prices from agents upon the portal opening tend to range from inflated to laughably unrealistic, it’s clear there’s a lot more money in the ecosystem this spring than last. A major driver of that is the advent of revenue sharing, with most high-majors and several top mid-majors able to share $3 million or more in addition to plans to use existing NIL collectives to operate above that. A high-end roster budget last year was around $5 million, now that number feels closer to $7 million based on recent conversations with staffs across the country. A few schools will spend even more than that.
With that, the market for high-level starters has ballooned substantially. Somewhere between 25 and 50 players made $1 million in 2024; expect that total to double in ’25. Sources tell that one top point guard has already received multiple $3 million offers, and numbers between $1 million and $2 million pop up far more often than they did a year ago in conversation. It’s already forcing programs to reevaluate their roster-building strategies and focus longer term on roster retention.
“You can’t afford to be in battles for six-seven guys in the portal every spring,” one high-major staffer told on Monday.
Iowa at the Center of Early Portal Activity
Iowa firing Fran McCaffery and hiring Ben McCollum has made the Hawkeyes perhaps the biggest presence in early portal dealings on both sides. The 2024–25 Iowa roster was ripe for the picking once the school moved on from McCaffery, with forward Owen Freeman and guard Josh Dix already among the most sought-after names available and Brock Harding, Pryce Sandfort and Cooper Koch all potential high-major targets as well. Freeman took a visit this week to Creighton, and On3 reported he’s also likely to visit Auburn, while Michigan and Gonzaga have also been connected to him at points in the recruiting process. Meanwhile, Dix is an easy plug-and-play backcourt option just about anywhere after averaging over 14 points per game with the Hawkeyes. He’s being courted by blueblood programs as well as multiple Big Ten suitors.
On the other side, the Hawkeyes already have a commitment from a player who may end up being the best player in the transfer portal in point guard Bennett Stirtz, who is set to follow McCollum from Drake just as he did moving up from Northwest Missouri State. Stirtz is a bona fide NBA draft prospect after averaging 19 points and nearly six assists per game in the Missouri Valley this season. Having Stirtz locked in should help McCollum build his first roster in Iowa City. He may need as many as 12 new players around Stirtz, but that’s an all-conference level building block to get the ball rolling. Retaining some of the current roster currently testing the portal would also be a good start, as McCollum himself admitted during his introductory news conference.
Other Rosters Facing Full-Scale Rebuilds
Kentucky, Arkansas and Michigan all faced massive rebuilds/reloads last spring and are still dancing into the Sweet 16, with Kentucky the first team ever to reach the second weekend without returning a single point of production from the previous year. An early look at those who are staring down similar restarts, other than the aforementioned Hawkeyes:
Indiana Hoosiers: All but two Hoosiers from this season are either in the portal or out of eligibility, and there’s no guarantee those who remain (Kanaan Carlyle and Bryson Tucker) will stick around through the portal window. New coach Darian DeVries will be armed with one of the biggest budgets to rebuild with, though, and should start with an impactful piece once his son, Tucker, officially commits. Syracuse Orange: The Orange just announced that a pair of key cogs in JJ Starling and Donnie Freeman are returning in 2025–26, but just one other scholarship player (wing/forward Petar Majstorovic) is set to return. Red Autry will rebuild in a critical year with a four-man freshman class and will have to hit the portal hard. Xavier Musketeers: The Musketeers are down to just three potential returners, redshirts Roddie Anderson and Lassina Traore and star guard Ryan Conwell. Retaining Conwell will be the priority for whoever replaces Sean Miller as head coach, potentially former Xavier and current Charleston head man Chris Mack. Ole Miss Rebels: Chris Beard has more important things to worry about with the Rebels in the Sweet 16, but he’ll need to hit the ground running in the portal once their season ends. The Rebels should bring back Malik Dia in the frontcourt, but otherwise, they will likely need four starters and a few key reserves as a senior-laden roster moves on. Miami Hurricanes: Jai Lucas got a bit of a head start in the portal after leaving his post as an assistant at Duke. He needed it with the rebuild he’s taking on at Miami. All but three members of this year’s team have hit the portal. Lucas is one of the most connected recruiters in the country, though, to rebuild this thing quickly. Ten Other Notable Entries Donovan Dent, New Mexico: A legitimate star at the point guard position, Dent is one of the most dynamic playmakers in the sport. Schools have been salivating at the chance to recruit him for months, though he is leaving the option to return to New Mexico open. Elliot Cadeau, North Carolina: The Tar Heel point guard seemed like a bit of a square peg in a round hole on this season’s team. He has his flaws, but he’ll be among the most sought-after players available. Bryce Hopkins, Providence: This sounds like a two-horse race between Georgetown and St. John’s for a former All–Big East player in Hopkins, who has missed most of the last two seasons due to knee injuries. Jeremiah Wilkinson, California: Ten high-major freshmen averaged 15-plus points per game this season. Nine are likely first-round draft picks. The 10th is Wilkinson, a dynamic bucket-getting guard who seems likely to be headed to the SEC. Obi Agbim, Wyoming: One of the top scoring guards in the portal, Agbim is moving up again after an incredibly successful season moving up from Division II to Wyoming. Baylor is believed to be deeply involved here. Elyjah Freeman, Lincoln Memorial: Freeman is on early NBA radars after a dynamic freshman season at Lincoln Memorial. Just 18 years old, he possesses a rare combination of positional size, athleticism and shooting potential. Tae Davis, Notre Dame: A fluid combo forward from Indianapolis, Davis averaged 15 points per game at Notre Dame this season and should be one of the most coveted players in the portal this cycle. Mackenzie Mgbako, Indiana: A former five-star recruit, Mgbako is looking to resurrect his career after two frustrating seasons in Bloomington. Isaac McKneely, Virginia: One of the most dynamic shooters in the country, McKneely is testing the portal after a coaching change. He’d be a strong fit in Ryan Odom’s system should he stay, but expect a whole host of other suitors, including Louisville. Magoon Gwath, San Diego State: Gwath is an intriguing talent, possessing a unique combination of shooting and rim protection at 7 feet tall. Keep an eye on this one.
