All signs pointed toward us finally having a profitable week in the 2025 edition of the Road to 272 Bets. We were sitting at 6-3 through the early afternoon games on Sunday, and everything was looking up. Unfortunately, things took a turn in a hurry. Adonai Mitchell dropped the ball before the goalline against the Rams, the Raiders got their game-winning field goal blocked, the 49ers continued to turn the ball over, the Packers couldn't stop the Cowboys' offense, and all of a sudden we went 1-6 in the last seven games of Week 4 to go 7-9 for -2.02 units on the week.
I'm now in serious danger of having two losing seasons in row since starting the Road to 272 Bets in 2019, but all we can do is march on and hope the luck swings in our direction. BYE weeks are set to begin, so we have just 14 games to watch and bet on this week's slate.
Let's dive into my top play for each of them. As always, I'll follow the rules I laid out in Week 1.
If you want to listen to the audio version of this week's picks, including some more in-depth analysis, check out the latest episode of Bacon Bets wherever you get your podcasts.
Road to 272 Bets Week 3 Record7-9 (-2.02 units)Road to 272 Bets Season-to-Date Record26-37-1 (-11.65 units)NFL Week 5 Best Bets for Every Game49ers vs. Rams Prediction
I've been a 49ers defender for a long time, but it's time for me to hop off the bandwagon. Poor special teams and turnovers continue to lead to them losing winnable games. Now, they have to hit the road to take on a Rams team that has been ultra-impressive to start the season. The Rams lead the league in Net Yards per Play at +1.5, largely led by a defense that ranks third in both opponent EPA per play and opponent success rate.
To make matters worse, Brock Purdy is officially listed as questionable for Thursday night after aggravating his injured toe on Sunday. I'm out on this team until they can prove they can put together a full 60 minutes of impressive football.
Vikings vs. Browns Prediction
These two teams are extremely similar in several ways. Fantastic defenses but terrible offenses. That may lead you to thinking the UNDER is a great bet for this London showdown, but with the total set at just 36.5, I'd rather take the 3.5 points with the underdog.
Despite facing a gauntlet of teams to start the season, including the Bengals, Ravens, Packers, and Lions, the Browns lead the NFL in opponent yards per play, giving up just 4.1 yards per snap. They're also seventh in opponent EPA per play and sixth in opponent success rate. Now, they get to face by far the worst offense they have faced so far this season. It should be a field day for them against Carson Wentz and an injured Vikings' offensive line.
I'll take the points with Cleveland.
Dolphins vs. Panthers Prediction
The Carolina Panthers' 30-0 win against the Falcons in Week 3 still has people convinced they have some life to them. At the end of the day, this is a terrible football team that ranks 29th in the league in Net Yards per Play at -1.3. Their secondary has been solid, but their run defense and entire offense leave a ton to be desired.
That lack of run defense could come back to haunt them in this game. They rank 31st in opponent rush EPA and have allowed 4.9 yards per carry through the first four weeks. Now, they have to take on a Dolphins team whose running game has been their biggest strength, ranking in the top 5 in most rushing metrics.
Raiders vs. Colts Prediction
The Las Vegas Raiders are certainly not a playoff team, but aren't as bad as the betting market is treating them. They're 19th in the NFL in Net Yards per Play at 0.0, and their defense has shown flashes of great play.
The Colts' offense has been fantastic this season, but they showed last week that they have a turnover issue, and Daniel Jones had moments where he looked like the quarterback of old, including a game-sealing interception.
With the spread set at a full seven points, I'll take the points with Las Vegas.
Giants vs. Saints Prediction
The New York Giants are coming off a win against the Los Angeles Chargers, and the New Orleans Saints had another tough loss, which makes this a perfect sell-high/buy-low spot on these two teams.
From a metrics perspective, these two teams are extremely similar. They rank 25th and 27th in net yards per play, 21st and 25th in EPA per play, and 26th and 28th in opponent EPA per play. Additionally, the Giants' best player, Malik Nabers, is now out for the season.
With all of that in mind, I'll back the home underdog getting 2.5 points.
Texans vs. Ravens Prediction
I still believe in the Baltimore Ravens long term, but I think the side to back is the Texans with the points in this spot, especially with Lamar Jackson dealing with a hamstring injury.
The Houston offense has struggled this season, but so has the Baltimore defense. The Ravens rank 29th in opponent EPA per play and 27th in opponent success rate. They've also given up 5.7 yards per play, which ranks 26th in the NFL.
The Ravens' offensive line has also struggled, allowing Lamar Jackson to be sacked 15 times this season, the third most sacks allowed in the league. Now they have to try to protect against a Texans defense that has already racked up 11 sacks in 2025.
All of this points to this being a closer game than some people expect. Give me the points with Houston.
Broncos vs. Eagles Prediction
The Philadelphia Eagles may be 4-0, but there are a lot of signs that should concern Eagles fans. For example, this team ranks 28th in the league in Net Yards per Play at -1.2, which is only one spot above the Panthers and one spot worse than the Saints. They also rank just 16th in EPA per play and 13th in opponent EPA per play.
Not only do their underlying numbers not match their record, but now they have to take on one of the best defenses in the NFL in the Denver Broncos. The Broncos' defense ranks fifth in opponent EPA per play and second in opponent success rate.
If the defense can stand tall, the Broncos are going to be live to hand the Eagles their first loss of the season.
Cowboys vs. Jets Prediction
The Cowboys might just be an auto OVER bet any time they play in a game with a total set in the 40s. To keep things as simple as possible, their offense ranks third in the NFL in EPA per Play, while their defense ranks 31st in opponent EPA per play. While the Jets' offense isn't as good, their defense is almost just as bad, coming in at 30th in opponent EPA per play.
I don't want to bet against the Cowboys with the chance that their offense scores every time they touch the ball, but I also don't want to bet against them and watch their opponent put up 40+ points again. Instead, I'll just sit back and root for points.
Titans vs. Cardinals Prediction
I don't love that I'm back to betting on the Tennessee Titans, but as bad as they are, I simply can't lay 9.5 points on this Arizona Cardinals team. Despite having a relatively easy schedule to start the season, the Cardinals rank 22nd in the NFL in Net Yards per Play (-0.6). They also rank 26th in offensive success rate.
This is the ultimate buy-low spot on the Titans. 9.5 points is a ton to lay in the NFL, especially on an average-at-best team in the Cardinals. I'll plug my nose and take the Titans.
Buccaneers vs. Seahawks Prediction
The Seattle Seahawks have relied on the run game this season. They run the ball on 53.02% of plays, which is the second most in the NFL. That could lead to some issues when they take on this Buccaneers defense, which has been fantastic against the run in 2025. The Bucs lead the NFL in opponent Rush EPA and fourth in opponent Rush Success Rate. They've also allowed just 3.3 yards per carry, the second-best mark in the league.
If the Buccaneers can stop the Seahawks' ground attack, that's enough for them to keep this game close. I'll take the 3.5 points with the Buccaneers.
Lions vs. Bengals Prediction
It's clear the Detroit Lions' Week 1 loss to the Green Bay Packers was an anomaly. They're quickly becoming one of the best teams in the NFL, and it's not just their explosive and efficient offense. They rank sixth in EPA per play but also sixth in opponent EPA per play. They also rank fourth in opponent success rate.
Meanwhile, the Bengals are a complete disaster with Joe Burrow injured. They're 31st in Net Yards per Play (-1.4), while also ranking near the bottom of the NFL in advanced metrics, both offensive and defensive. There's little they'll be able to do to keep pace with the Lions. I'll lay the points with Detroit.
Commanders vs. Chargers Prediction
Jayden Daniels is expected to make his return to the Commanders' lineup in Week 5, but even if he does, I'm not concerned. I expected him to take a step back this year after a historic rookie season, and his first two starts showed that regression. Now, he and the Commanders have to take on a Chargers defense that ranks fourth in opponent EPA per play, first in opponent success rate, and first in opponent dropback success rate.
The Chargers' rookie running back, Omarion Hampton, finally had his coming-out game against the Giants, racking up 128 yards on 12 carries along with 37 receiving yards on five receptions. Let's buy low on this Chargers team after their Week 4 loss.
Patriots vs. Bills Prediction
It's been a while since I've made this bold of an upset pick, but I see a lot of issues with this Bills team. Let's remember how weak their schedule has been since Week 1. Their last three games have come against the Jets, Dolphins, and Saints. Despite that, they rank only seventh in Net Yards per Play (+0.9), and their defense ranks 22nd in opponent EPA per play, 17th in opponent success rate, and 22nd in defensive DVOA. To have those numbers while playing three of the worst teams in the NFL is a real problem.
Meanwhile, Drake Maye has had a fantastic start to his sophomore season. He's sixth amongst starting quarterbacks in EPA+CPOE composite and adjusted EPA per play. Their defense has had some problems of its own, but they rank right around the same as the Bills in several categories.
This has all the makings of an offensive shootout, and if the Bills aren't careful, the Patriots have a chance of pulling off an AFC East upset. I'll take a shot on New England as a big-time underdog.
Chiefs vs. Jaguars Prediction
The Jaguars' defense is the reason why they're sitting at 3-1. They lead the NFL in opponent EPA per play, rank fifth in opponent success rate, and rank third in defensive DVOA. Offensively, they're just 18th in EPA per play and 14th in DVOA. Trevor Lawrence also ranks just 26th amongst starting quarterbacks in EPA+CPOE Composite, which is making me start to doubt the abilities of this Jaguars' offensive unit. The Chiefs' defense is also coming into this game off a strong defensive performance against the Baltimore Ravens, holding them to just 20 points.
With that in mind, I could see this being a low-scoring affair on Monday night.
