How exactly has it come to this? Two of the Premier League’s most financially stable, most mid-table clubs meeting for a 3pm game of Russian Roulette upon finding themselves either side of the dreaded drop line.
With potential survival on the line against an equally unexpected relegation rival, West Ham and Southampton’s Premier League clash on Saturday has reduced to essentially that; two nervous participants shaking at the knees, still trying to work out how they’ve ended up in this morbid situation, taking turns not to shoot themselves in the face.
One false move and the final games of the season, especially considering the calibre of opposition involved, will have a painfully inevitable feel about them.
Indeed, if this season should be remembered for anything other than Manchester City’s incredible, relentless dominance, it’s undoubtedly the way in which the division’s traditional middle order has suddenly collapsed.
Having never finished lower than 14th or higher than sixth since both returning to the Premier League in summer 2012, West Ham and Southampton’s debasing campaigns are a huge part of that, but the phenomena is by no means exclusive to them; Stoke City finished ninth during three of the last four seasons but are now in the relegation zone, rock-bottom West Brom were placed tenth last term and even Everton – one of the few clubs outside the big six who can comfortably expect to maintain their Premier League status at a bare minimum every year – spent the early months of 2017/18 engrossed in the battle for survival.
But what’s most curious about Southampton and West Ham particularly is how both clubs have taken entirely different paths to reach where they are now, and how both sets of fans are probably a little envious of the opposing model – even though it has brought them to almost exactly same place this season.
Quite what that means for the Premier League still isn’t particularly clear, but it suggests there are more systematic factors at work than simply several clubs falling short of their usual standards.
After all, Southampton’s approach of placing huge faith in young players, some from their own academy, fits perfectly into West Ham’s traditional identity – back when their youth setup was so revered it was widely referred to as simply ‘The Academy’.
Now though, the London Stadium has become a holding house of Premier League mercenaries and players whose reputations tend to exceed their actual form.
The only players with any true, long-term connections to the club are James Collins and Mark Noble, although Declan Rice’s emergence this season has given a pinch of hope that West Ham’s academy can still churn out top flight talent when given the chance to do so.
In any case though, it’s only added to the narrative that David Gold, David Sullivan and Karren Brady have slowly stripped away the identity of arguably the Premier League’s most idiosyncratic club.
Southampton fans, on the other hand, understandably lament the way their club has become a stepping stone for exciting young players, imported or academy-developed, and an overreliance on them has undoubtedly lead to this season’s mess.
While Sadio Mane, Virgil van Dijk, Morgan Schneiderlin, Adam Lallana and company all earned big moves elsewhere by propelling Southampton up the league table, the next batch of prominent youngsters with big potential have struggled to realise it in quite the same way – Nathan Redmond, Mario Lemina and Sofiane Boufal most notably.
Indeed, it often feels as if this Southampton side would benefit hugely from a dose of the level of Premier League experience West Ham brought to the London Stadium last summer, a fully fledged England international like Joe Hart, a seasoned combatant like Pablo Zabaleta, and a Premier League-proven forward like Marko Arnautovic.
A few signings with that established pedigree may well have provided some much-needed balance and consistency in an incredibly underwhelming campaign, but in the five years since returning to the Premier League, Southampton have purchased just four players directly from top flight rivals (excluding free transfers) – Ryan Bertrand, Oriol Romeu, Shane Long and Alex McCarthy.
But alas, with West Ham and Southampton something close to symmetrical opposites of each other yet still facing the same grim scenario of relegation, perhaps those clubs involved in the 2017/18 dogfight should be looking outward rather than inward to try and understand this season. Of course, incompetence is a huge factor and both sets of fans will argue their respective clubs have been guilty of that not only this season but in prior campaigns too, leading to their current crises.
Once again, though, look around the Premier League; it’s certainly plausible for two mid-table clubs to eventually succumb to their own errors, but we’re talking about five or six this season who – despite taking largely different approaches based around different identities – all find themselves staring nervously towards the Championship.
So, how exactly did it come to this – the roads being so different, yet the consequences being practically the same? One can point to the increased dominance of the big six, the almost dystopian equality of finance of those below them, the sudden shift towards defensive football, or the subsequent questions over the overall quality of the Premier League these days.
But whichever conclusion you personally prescribe to, it still feels as if this only the start of the Premier League’s natural hierarchy falling into complete disarray.
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